Critical analysis

Two-year simulation of policing strategy feedback

This page follows a two-year simulation of how a patrol-planning specialist might use the system, how application-guided patrol choices reshape later incident data, and how that feedback loop produces long-run winners and losers across Tartu suburbs.

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Methodology

How the two-year simulation works

Baseline window 28 Jan 2026 - 28 Apr 2026
Simulated window 28 Jan 2028 - 28 Apr 2028
Simulated windows 8 quarters
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Feedback loop

Patrol pressure over two years

In the simulation, areas with stronger minority and social-vulnerability markers receive more patrol pressure, and that elevated attention carries into the next round of model inputs.

Recorded outcomes

Incident index over two years

In this setup, the application changes recorded incident data as well as policing behavior, so targeted areas can continue to look worse over time even when the underlying story is more complicated.

Distributional impact

How winning and losing is expressed

The table below expresses the simulated policing strategy as social effects: who benefits from a lighter touch, who absorbs more surveillance pressure, and where prestige and property pressure diverge.

Suburb 2026 incidents 2028 incidents Patrol shift Minority / vulnerable impact Property price pressure Prestige shift Ghettoization risk
Final conclusions
Core takeaway of the project This section captures the main conclusion that emerged from the full simulation.

Should local police implement this system?

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